In Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race, with term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy sidelined, trader consensus favors Republican Bernadette Wilson at 30.5% implied probability to win the November general election after the August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary and ranked-choice voting, edging Democrat Tom Begich at 25.5%, former Attorney General Treg Taylor at 14.4%, and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom at 11.1%. A March Alaska Survey Research poll of likely voters showed Begich leading primary preferences at 19.4% amid a fragmented field of over 15 candidates, with Wilson second at 13.6%, reflecting no dominant frontrunner and vote-splitting risks. February fundraising reports highlighted six-figure hauls and self-funding by top contenders like Wilson, Begich, and Taylor, sustaining the tight contest. Endorsements, fresh polls, or debates ahead of the June 1 filing deadline could consolidate support and create separation in this battleground for Alaska's moderate electorate.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoBernadette Wilson 31%
Tom Begich 26%
Treg Taylor 14.5%
Nancy Dahlstrom 11.1%
$821,758 Vol.
$821,758 Vol.

Bernadette Wilson
31%

Tom Begich
26%

Treg Taylor
14%

Nancy Dahlstrom
11%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
4%

David Bronson
3%

Click Bishop
2%

Matt Claman
1%

Adam Crum
<1%

Lisa Murkowski
<1%

Mary Peltola
<1%

Matt Heilala
<1%

Edna DeVries
<1%

Shelley Hughes
<1%

Hank Kroll
<1%

James Parkin
<1%

Bruce Walden
<1%
Bernadette Wilson 31%
Tom Begich 26%
Treg Taylor 14.5%
Nancy Dahlstrom 11.1%
$821,758 Vol.
$821,758 Vol.

Bernadette Wilson
31%

Tom Begich
26%

Treg Taylor
14%

Nancy Dahlstrom
11%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
4%

David Bronson
3%

Click Bishop
2%

Matt Claman
1%

Adam Crum
<1%

Lisa Murkowski
<1%

Mary Peltola
<1%

Matt Heilala
<1%

Edna DeVries
<1%

Shelley Hughes
<1%

Hank Kroll
<1%

James Parkin
<1%

Bruce Walden
<1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race, with term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy sidelined, trader consensus favors Republican Bernadette Wilson at 30.5% implied probability to win the November general election after the August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary and ranked-choice voting, edging Democrat Tom Begich at 25.5%, former Attorney General Treg Taylor at 14.4%, and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom at 11.1%. A March Alaska Survey Research poll of likely voters showed Begich leading primary preferences at 19.4% amid a fragmented field of over 15 candidates, with Wilson second at 13.6%, reflecting no dominant frontrunner and vote-splitting risks. February fundraising reports highlighted six-figure hauls and self-funding by top contenders like Wilson, Begich, and Taylor, sustaining the tight contest. Endorsements, fresh polls, or debates ahead of the June 1 filing deadline could consolidate support and create separation in this battleground for Alaska's moderate electorate.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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