Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.8% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, as the deadline passed yesterday without any new official announcements from governments declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata. This high confidence stems from the absence of fresh diplomatic actions in late April, following Argentina's April 2 expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires over IRGC blacklisting disputes and U.S. disclosures of a prior December 2025 ouster of Iran's deputy UN envoy on national security grounds. Earlier March escalations saw Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states expel Iranian attaches amid missile attacks and proxy tensions, but no subsequent retaliatory moves materialized. Realistic shifts could arise from late-verified expulsions predating the cutoff or disputed timings, though verification from primary diplomatic channels remains unlikely at this stage.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOutro diplomata iraniano expulso até 30 de abril?
Outro diplomata iraniano expulso até 30 de abril?
Sim
$14,464 Vol.
$14,464 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sim
$14,464 Vol.
$14,464 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.8% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, as the deadline passed yesterday without any new official announcements from governments declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata. This high confidence stems from the absence of fresh diplomatic actions in late April, following Argentina's April 2 expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires over IRGC blacklisting disputes and U.S. disclosures of a prior December 2025 ouster of Iran's deputy UN envoy on national security grounds. Earlier March escalations saw Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states expel Iranian attaches amid missile attacks and proxy tensions, but no subsequent retaliatory moves materialized. Realistic shifts could arise from late-verified expulsions predating the cutoff or disputed timings, though verification from primary diplomatic channels remains unlikely at this stage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$14,464Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.8% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, as the deadline passed yesterday without any new official announcements from governments declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata. This high confidence stems from the absence of fresh diplomatic actions in late April, following Argentina's April 2 expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires over IRGC blacklisting disputes and U.S. disclosures of a prior December 2025 ouster of Iran's deputy UN envoy on national security grounds. Earlier March escalations saw Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states expel Iranian attaches amid missile attacks and proxy tensions, but no subsequent retaliatory moves materialized. Realistic shifts could arise from late-verified expulsions predating the cutoff or disputed timings, though verification from primary diplomatic channels remains unlikely at this stage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$14,464Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.8% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, as the deadline passed yesterday without any new official announcements from governments declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata. This high confidence stems from the absence of fresh diplomatic actions in late April, following Argentina's April 2 expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires over IRGC blacklisting disputes and U.S. disclosures of a prior December 2025 ouster of Iran's deputy UN envoy on national security grounds. Earlier March escalations saw Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states expel Iranian attaches amid missile attacks and proxy tensions, but no subsequent retaliatory moves materialized. Realistic shifts could arise from late-verified expulsions predating the cutoff or disputed timings, though verification from primary diplomatic channels remains unlikely at this stage.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions