**Trader sentiment for Deep Fission’s IPO closing market cap heavily favors a sub-$1.25 billion outcome (79.7% implied probability), reflecting the company’s sharply revised IPO terms and persistent doubts about its pre-revenue nuclear technology.** Deep Fission, which is developing small modular pressurized water reactors placed in deep boreholes for underground deployment, filed its initial S-1 in May 2026 targeting a $1.66 billion valuation at $24–$26 per share to raise up to ~$156 million. Updated filings in early June lowered the range to $16–$18 per share, implying a roughly $1.03 billion fully diluted equity value at the midpoint. This adjustment aligns directly with the dominant <$1.25 billion bucket and signals reduced investor appetite for the unproven borehole reactor concept despite DOE pilot program selection and site work in Kansas. Key drivers include the company’s pre-revenue status, slipped timelines (no updated criticality estimate after earlier July 2026 targets), cash-burn concerns, and analyst skepticism about commercialization speed versus peers. The “No IPO before August 2026” outcome at 10.8% captures residual execution risk around the June 18 pricing/closing window. Higher valuation buckets (e.g., $1.25–1.5B at 10%) remain possible only if strong institutional demand or positive AI-driven nuclear tailwinds emerge during the roadshow, but current filings and reporting indicate the lower range is now the baseline consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado<$1.25B 100.0%
$1.25B–$1.5B <1%
$1.5B–$1.75B <1%
$1.75B–$2.0B <1%
$27,786 Vol.
$27,786 Vol.
29 mai 2026
<$1.25B
Yes
$1.25B–$1.5B
No
$1.5B–$1.75B
No
$1.75B–$2.0B
No
$2.0B–$2.5B
No
$2.5B–$3.0B
No
$3.0B+
No
No IPO before August 2026
No
<$1.25B 100.0%
$1.25B–$1.5B <1%
$1.5B–$1.75B <1%
$1.75B–$2.0B <1%
$27,786 Vol.
$27,786 Vol.
29 mai 2026
<$1.25B
$5,412 Vol.
Yes
$1.25B–$1.5B
$2,036 Vol.
No
$1.5B–$1.75B
$10,335 Vol.
No
$1.75B–$2.0B
$4,697 Vol.
No
$2.0B–$2.5B
$902 Vol.
No
$2.5B–$3.0B
$931 Vol.
No
$3.0B+
$976 Vol.
No
No IPO before August 2026
$2,497 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on Deep Fission's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Trader sentiment for Deep Fission’s IPO closing market cap heavily favors a sub-$1.25 billion outcome (79.7% implied probability), reflecting the company’s sharply revised IPO terms and persistent doubts about its pre-revenue nuclear technology.**
Deep Fission, which is developing small modular pressurized water reactors placed in deep boreholes for underground deployment, filed its initial S-1 in May 2026 targeting a $1.66 billion valuation at $24–$26 per share to raise up to ~$156 million. Updated filings in early June lowered the range to $16–$18 per share, implying a roughly $1.03 billion fully diluted equity value at the midpoint. This adjustment aligns directly with the dominant <$1.25 billion bucket and signals reduced investor appetite for the unproven borehole reactor concept despite DOE pilot program selection and site work in Kansas.
Key drivers include the company’s pre-revenue status, slipped timelines (no updated criticality estimate after earlier July 2026 targets), cash-burn concerns, and analyst skepticism about commercialization speed versus peers. The “No IPO before August 2026” outcome at 10.8% captures residual execution risk around the June 18 pricing/closing window. Higher valuation buckets (e.g., $1.25–1.5B at 10%) remain possible only if strong institutional demand or positive AI-driven nuclear tailwinds emerge during the roadshow, but current filings and reporting indicate the lower range is now the baseline consensus.
This market will resolve based on Deep Fission's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$27,786Data de Término
29 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve based on Deep Fission's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Trader sentiment for Deep Fission’s IPO closing market cap heavily favors a sub-$1.25 billion outcome (79.7% implied probability), reflecting the company’s sharply revised IPO terms and persistent doubts about its pre-revenue nuclear technology.**
Deep Fission, which is developing small modular pressurized water reactors placed in deep boreholes for underground deployment, filed its initial S-1 in May 2026 targeting a $1.66 billion valuation at $24–$26 per share to raise up to ~$156 million. Updated filings in early June lowered the range to $16–$18 per share, implying a roughly $1.03 billion fully diluted equity value at the midpoint. This adjustment aligns directly with the dominant <$1.25 billion bucket and signals reduced investor appetite for the unproven borehole reactor concept despite DOE pilot program selection and site work in Kansas.
Key drivers include the company’s pre-revenue status, slipped timelines (no updated criticality estimate after earlier July 2026 targets), cash-burn concerns, and analyst skepticism about commercialization speed versus peers. The “No IPO before August 2026” outcome at 10.8% captures residual execution risk around the June 18 pricing/closing window. Higher valuation buckets (e.g., $1.25–1.5B at 10%) remain possible only if strong institutional demand or positive AI-driven nuclear tailwinds emerge during the roadshow, but current filings and reporting indicate the lower range is now the baseline consensus.
This market will resolve based on Deep Fission's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 29 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$27,786Data de Término
29 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
**Trader sentiment for Deep Fission’s IPO closing market cap heavily favors a sub-$1.25 billion outcome (79.7% implied probability), reflecting the company’s sharply revised IPO terms and persistent doubts about its pre-revenue nuclear technology.** Deep Fission, which is developing small modular pressurized water reactors placed in deep boreholes for underground deployment, filed its initial S-1 in May 2026 targeting a $1.66 billion valuation at $24–$26 per share to raise up to ~$156 million. Updated filings in early June lowered the range to $16–$18 per share, implying a roughly $1.03 billion fully diluted equity value at the midpoint. This adjustment aligns directly with the dominant <$1.25 billion bucket and signals reduced investor appetite for the unproven borehole reactor concept despite DOE pilot program selection and site work in Kansas. Key drivers include the company’s pre-revenue status, slipped timelines (no updated criticality estimate after earlier July 2026 targets), cash-burn concerns, and analyst skepticism about commercialization speed versus peers. The “No IPO before August 2026” outcome at 10.8% captures residual execution risk around the June 18 pricing/closing window. Higher valuation buckets (e.g., $1.25–1.5B at 10%) remain possible only if strong institutional demand or positive AI-driven nuclear tailwinds emerge during the roadshow, but current filings and reporting indicate the lower range is now the baseline consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions