**Erdoğan’s constitutional term runs through 2028, with the next scheduled presidential and parliamentary elections set for May of that year.** Under Turkey’s presidential system, he has reached the two-term limit unless parliament approves an early vote by a three-fifths majority, a step neither the AKP-MHP alliance nor the government has pursued. Recent public appearances, including September 2026 speeches in Rize emphasizing continued service and the “Turkish Century” agenda, alongside routine policy announcements on defense, foreign affairs, and domestic projects, show no signs of an imminent exit. Opposition fragmentation and legal challenges have further reduced near-term pressure, while official planning documents assume elections proceed on schedule. With only months remaining until the December 31, 2026 cutoff and no credible triggers for removal via resignation, health crisis, or snap vote, trader pricing at 93.5% for “No” aligns with the structural timeline and absence of disruptive events.