Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting Mexico City's highest temperature near 23°C on April 5, with a 2–3°C spread driving the razor-thin odds separating 22°C (31%), 23°C (32%), and 24°C (24%). At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's baseline April highs hover around 24°C, moderated by frequent afternoon cloud development and potential thunderstorms, as indicated by current model guidance showing PM convective activity. Differentiating factors include precise ridge strength aloft for temperature advection, low-level moisture influencing cloud cover timing, and urban heat effects, all contributing to model divergence. New SMN and international model runs expected April 4 could sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution via official airport observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 5?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 5?
23°C 31%
22°C 20%
24°C 20%
25°C 10%
21°C or below
4%
22°C
28%
23°C
31%
24°C
28%
25°C
10%
26°C
9%
27°C
3%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
23°C 31%
22°C 20%
24°C 20%
25°C 10%
21°C or below
4%
22°C
28%
23°C
31%
24°C
28%
25°C
10%
26°C
9%
27°C
3%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting Mexico City's highest temperature near 23°C on April 5, with a 2–3°C spread driving the razor-thin odds separating 22°C (31%), 23°C (32%), and 24°C (24%). At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's baseline April highs hover around 24°C, moderated by frequent afternoon cloud development and potential thunderstorms, as indicated by current model guidance showing PM convective activity. Differentiating factors include precise ridge strength aloft for temperature advection, low-level moisture influencing cloud cover timing, and urban heat effects, all contributing to model divergence. New SMN and international model runs expected April 4 could sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution via official airport observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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