Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS have converged on a daytime high near 12°C for Moscow on April 13, driving the strong 90% market-implied probability for 11°C or higher amid trader consensus on mild spring conditions. This positioning reflects recent 48-hour model runs showing a persistent high-pressure ridge over Eastern Europe ushering in warmer southerly airflow, following cooler temperatures around 5°C earlier this week on April 11. Current observational data from Russian Hydrometeorological Center stations confirm stabilizing atmospheric patterns with light winds and partial sunshine, aligning with historical mid-April norms of 9–12°C peaks. While uncertainty remains low at this range, new 00Z and 12Z forecast updates tomorrow could refine peak timing amid potential scattered clouds, though significant deviations are unlikely given model agreement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on April 13?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 13?
11°C or higher 89%
9°C 5.3%
10°C 4.4%
8°C 1.1%
$12,777 Vol.
$12,777 Vol.
1°C or below
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
5%
10°C
4%
11°C or higher
89%
11°C or higher 89%
9°C 5.3%
10°C 4.4%
8°C 1.1%
$12,777 Vol.
$12,777 Vol.
1°C or below
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
5%
10°C
4%
11°C or higher
89%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 9, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS have converged on a daytime high near 12°C for Moscow on April 13, driving the strong 90% market-implied probability for 11°C or higher amid trader consensus on mild spring conditions. This positioning reflects recent 48-hour model runs showing a persistent high-pressure ridge over Eastern Europe ushering in warmer southerly airflow, following cooler temperatures around 5°C earlier this week on April 11. Current observational data from Russian Hydrometeorological Center stations confirm stabilizing atmospheric patterns with light winds and partial sunshine, aligning with historical mid-April norms of 9–12°C peaks. While uncertainty remains low at this range, new 00Z and 12Z forecast updates tomorrow could refine peak timing amid potential scattered clouds, though significant deviations are unlikely given model agreement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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