Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 10°C high in Moscow at 43.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 9°C (24%) and 11°C (19%), driven by the latest forecast model ensembles from Russian Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS converging on daytime peaks of 10–11°C under overcast skies with light afternoon rain. This positioning reflects a sharp rebound from the early April cold snap—April 10 and 11 highs lingered near 4–5°C amid Arctic air intrusion—now yielding to a moderating Atlantic air mass aligning with mid-April climatological norms of 10–12°C. Model spreads remain tight at ±1–2°C, with official station observations (e.g., Balchug or Vnukovo) determining resolution by midnight; hourly updates from monitoring agencies could refine trader sentiment as diurnal warming unfolds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on April 12?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 12?
10°C 43%
9°C 24%
11°C 19%
8°C 4.5%
$20,391 Vol.
$20,391 Vol.
12 abr 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
4%
9°C
24%
10°C
43%
11°C
19%
12°C
4%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
10°C 43%
9°C 24%
11°C 19%
8°C 4.5%
$20,391 Vol.
$20,391 Vol.
12 abr 2026
7°C or below
$2,578 Vol.
1%
8°C
$2,320 Vol.
4%
9°C
$1,938 Vol.
24%
10°C
$1,577 Vol.
43%
11°C
$1,893 Vol.
19%
12°C
$1,086 Vol.
4%
13°C
$1,550 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$2,510 Vol.
1%
15°C
$1,842 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,300 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$1,839 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 10°C high in Moscow at 43.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 9°C (24%) and 11°C (19%), driven by the latest forecast model ensembles from Russian Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS converging on daytime peaks of 10–11°C under overcast skies with light afternoon rain. This positioning reflects a sharp rebound from the early April cold snap—April 10 and 11 highs lingered near 4–5°C amid Arctic air intrusion—now yielding to a moderating Atlantic air mass aligning with mid-April climatological norms of 10–12°C. Model spreads remain tight at ±1–2°C, with official station observations (e.g., Balchug or Vnukovo) determining resolution by midnight; hourly updates from monitoring agencies could refine trader sentiment as diurnal warming unfolds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 8, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
Volume
$20,391Data de Término
12 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:20 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 10°C high in Moscow at 43.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 9°C (24%) and 11°C (19%), driven by the latest forecast model ensembles from Russian Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS converging on daytime peaks of 10–11°C under overcast skies with light afternoon rain. This positioning reflects a sharp rebound from the early April cold snap—April 10 and 11 highs lingered near 4–5°C amid Arctic air intrusion—now yielding to a moderating Atlantic air mass aligning with mid-April climatological norms of 10–12°C. Model spreads remain tight at ±1–2°C, with official station observations (e.g., Balchug or Vnukovo) determining resolution by midnight; hourly updates from monitoring agencies could refine trader sentiment as diurnal warming unfolds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,391Data de Término
12 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:20 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 10°C high in Moscow at 43.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 9°C (24%) and 11°C (19%), driven by the latest forecast model ensembles from Russian Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS converging on daytime peaks of 10–11°C under overcast skies with light afternoon rain. This positioning reflects a sharp rebound from the early April cold snap—April 10 and 11 highs lingered near 4–5°C amid Arctic air intrusion—now yielding to a moderating Atlantic air mass aligning with mid-April climatological norms of 10–12°C. Model spreads remain tight at ±1–2°C, with official station observations (e.g., Balchug or Vnukovo) determining resolution by midnight; hourly updates from monitoring agencies could refine trader sentiment as diurnal warming unfolds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions