Latest short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show a consensus high temperature of 28–29°C for São Paulo on April 4, fueling tight market-implied odds with 29°C (28.5%) narrowly ahead of 28°C (26.5%) and 30°C (20.5%). This clustering stems from dominant subtropical high pressure fostering clear skies and above-average autumn warmth—exceeding the historical April mean of 26°C—tempered by scattered clouds, passing showers, and sea breeze influences that cap peak insolation. Urban heat island effects in São Paulo amplify potential extremes, but model spread highlights 1–2°C uncertainty from afternoon convection timing. Traders await updated 12z runs and INMET observations for resolution, as boundary layer mixing and humidity could tip the balance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
29°C 29%
28°C 28%
30°C 19%
27°C 13%
$10,053 Vol.
$10,053 Vol.
4 abr 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
13%
28°C
28%
29°C
29%
30°C
19%
31°C
5%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 29%
28°C 28%
30°C 19%
27°C 13%
$10,053 Vol.
$10,053 Vol.
4 abr 2026
25°C or below
$951 Vol.
2%
26°C
$915 Vol.
4%
27°C
$1,007 Vol.
13%
28°C
$937 Vol.
28%
29°C
$1,009 Vol.
29%
30°C
$771 Vol.
19%
31°C
$883 Vol.
5%
32°C
$1,345 Vol.
1%
33°C
$935 Vol.
1%
34°C
$534 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$765 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show a consensus high temperature of 28–29°C for São Paulo on April 4, fueling tight market-implied odds with 29°C (28.5%) narrowly ahead of 28°C (26.5%) and 30°C (20.5%). This clustering stems from dominant subtropical high pressure fostering clear skies and above-average autumn warmth—exceeding the historical April mean of 26°C—tempered by scattered clouds, passing showers, and sea breeze influences that cap peak insolation. Urban heat island effects in São Paulo amplify potential extremes, but model spread highlights 1–2°C uncertainty from afternoon convection timing. Traders await updated 12z runs and INMET observations for resolution, as boundary layer mixing and humidity could tip the balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$10,053Data de Término
4 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show a consensus high temperature of 28–29°C for São Paulo on April 4, fueling tight market-implied odds with 29°C (28.5%) narrowly ahead of 28°C (26.5%) and 30°C (20.5%). This clustering stems from dominant subtropical high pressure fostering clear skies and above-average autumn warmth—exceeding the historical April mean of 26°C—tempered by scattered clouds, passing showers, and sea breeze influences that cap peak insolation. Urban heat island effects in São Paulo amplify potential extremes, but model spread highlights 1–2°C uncertainty from afternoon convection timing. Traders await updated 12z runs and INMET observations for resolution, as boundary layer mixing and humidity could tip the balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,053Data de Término
4 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show a consensus high temperature of 28–29°C for São Paulo on April 4, fueling tight market-implied odds with 29°C (28.5%) narrowly ahead of 28°C (26.5%) and 30°C (20.5%). This clustering stems from dominant subtropical high pressure fostering clear skies and above-average autumn warmth—exceeding the historical April mean of 26°C—tempered by scattered clouds, passing showers, and sea breeze influences that cap peak insolation. Urban heat island effects in São Paulo amplify potential extremes, but model spread highlights 1–2°C uncertainty from afternoon convection timing. Traders await updated 12z runs and INMET observations for resolution, as boundary layer mixing and humidity could tip the balance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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