Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 27°C (28.5% implied probability) and 28°C (30.5%), reflecting uncertainty in short-term forecasts from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and CPTEC/INPE models for April 5 amid the onset of the season's first heat wave starting April 4. Recent observations show a shift from stormy conditions and lower highs around 24-26°C on April 1 to sunnier skies yielding 28°C on April 2, driven by high-pressure ridging reducing cloud cover and humidity. Differentiating factors include potential sea breeze moderation, lingering instability, and urban heat island effects in São Paulo, with historical early-April averages near 26°C. New INMET updates expected April 4 could refine trajectories as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 5?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 5?
28°C 31%
27°C 29%
26°C 20%
25°C 12%
NOVO
NOVO
5 abr 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
4%
25°C
12%
26°C
20%
27°C
29%
28°C
31%
29°C
11%
30°C
5%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 31%
27°C 29%
26°C 20%
25°C 12%
NOVO
NOVO
5 abr 2026
22°C or below
$273 Vol.
1%
23°C
$225 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$142 Vol.
4%
25°C
$171 Vol.
12%
26°C
$182 Vol.
20%
27°C
$197 Vol.
29%
28°C
$223 Vol.
31%
29°C
$541 Vol.
11%
30°C
$91 Vol.
5%
31°C
$132 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$171 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 27°C (28.5% implied probability) and 28°C (30.5%), reflecting uncertainty in short-term forecasts from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and CPTEC/INPE models for April 5 amid the onset of the season's first heat wave starting April 4. Recent observations show a shift from stormy conditions and lower highs around 24-26°C on April 1 to sunnier skies yielding 28°C on April 2, driven by high-pressure ridging reducing cloud cover and humidity. Differentiating factors include potential sea breeze moderation, lingering instability, and urban heat island effects in São Paulo, with historical early-April averages near 26°C. New INMET updates expected April 4 could refine trajectories as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$2,347Data de Término
5 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 27°C (28.5% implied probability) and 28°C (30.5%), reflecting uncertainty in short-term forecasts from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and CPTEC/INPE models for April 5 amid the onset of the season's first heat wave starting April 4. Recent observations show a shift from stormy conditions and lower highs around 24-26°C on April 1 to sunnier skies yielding 28°C on April 2, driven by high-pressure ridging reducing cloud cover and humidity. Differentiating factors include potential sea breeze moderation, lingering instability, and urban heat island effects in São Paulo, with historical early-April averages near 26°C. New INMET updates expected April 4 could refine trajectories as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,347Data de Término
5 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 27°C (28.5% implied probability) and 28°C (30.5%), reflecting uncertainty in short-term forecasts from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and CPTEC/INPE models for April 5 amid the onset of the season's first heat wave starting April 4. Recent observations show a shift from stormy conditions and lower highs around 24-26°C on April 1 to sunnier skies yielding 28°C on April 2, driven by high-pressure ridging reducing cloud cover and humidity. Differentiating factors include potential sea breeze moderation, lingering instability, and urban heat island effects in São Paulo, with historical early-April averages near 26°C. New INMET updates expected April 4 could refine trajectories as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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