Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time observations for August 27, 2026, show Tokyo under cloudy skies with scattered showers, producing a daytime maximum near the seasonal normal of 30.1°C. This alignment drives the market's 100% implied probability on exactly 30°C, as aggregated trader positions reflect high confidence in JMA-verified readings rather than model spreads or historical August highs around 31°C. Minor deviations could arise if afternoon clearing allows greater insolation or if heavier localized rainfall suppresses the peak, though current steering patterns and humidity levels limit such shifts before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Tóquio em 27 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Tóquio em 27 de agosto?
30°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$89,652 Vol.
$89,652 Vol.
27 ago 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$89,652 Vol.
$89,652 Vol.
27 ago 2026
27°C or below
$2,561 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,889 Vol.
No
29°C
$24,535 Vol.
No
30°C
$27,275 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$8,324 Vol.
No
32°C
$6,744 Vol.
No
33°C
$4,704 Vol.
No
34°C
$6,134 Vol.
No
35°C
$2,139 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,533 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$1,813 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time observations for August 27, 2026, show Tokyo under cloudy skies with scattered showers, producing a daytime maximum near the seasonal normal of 30.1°C. This alignment drives the market's 100% implied probability on exactly 30°C, as aggregated trader positions reflect high confidence in JMA-verified readings rather than model spreads or historical August highs around 31°C. Minor deviations could arise if afternoon clearing allows greater insolation or if heavier localized rainfall suppresses the peak, though current steering patterns and humidity levels limit such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$89,652Data de Término
27 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time observations for August 27, 2026, show Tokyo under cloudy skies with scattered showers, producing a daytime maximum near the seasonal normal of 30.1°C. This alignment drives the market's 100% implied probability on exactly 30°C, as aggregated trader positions reflect high confidence in JMA-verified readings rather than model spreads or historical August highs around 31°C. Minor deviations could arise if afternoon clearing allows greater insolation or if heavier localized rainfall suppresses the peak, though current steering patterns and humidity levels limit such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$89,652Data de Término
27 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time observations for August 27, 2026, show Tokyo under cloudy skies with scattered showers, producing a daytime maximum near the seasonal normal of 30.1°C. This alignment drives the market's 100% implied probability on exactly 30°C, as aggregated trader positions reflect high confidence in JMA-verified readings rather than model spreads or historical August highs around 31°C. Minor deviations could arise if afternoon clearing allows greater insolation or if heavier localized rainfall suppresses the peak, though current steering patterns and humidity levels limit such shifts before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions