Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 17 show maximum temperatures clustering tightly around 15-16°C, fueling trader sentiment with 15°C at 31.5% implied probability edging out 17°C or higher (29%) and 16°C (26%). This reflects model consensus amid uncertainty from variable cloud cover and potential transient rain showers, as per IMGW's weekly outlook indicating about 14°C in central Poland under overcast conditions that could limit solar insolation and suppress diurnal heating. Slightly warmer outcomes hinge on clearer skies enhancing boundary layer mixing, while cooler scenarios align with persistent low-level clouds. New 12z ECMWF/GFS runs and IMGW updates expected April 16 morning may refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official station data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
15°C 32%
17°C or higher 26%
16°C 19%
14°C 19%
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
4%
12°C
5%
13°C
9%
14°C
19%
15°C
32%
16°C
26%
17°C or higher
26%
15°C 32%
17°C or higher 26%
16°C 19%
14°C 19%
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
4%
12°C
5%
13°C
9%
14°C
19%
15°C
32%
16°C
26%
17°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 17 show maximum temperatures clustering tightly around 15-16°C, fueling trader sentiment with 15°C at 31.5% implied probability edging out 17°C or higher (29%) and 16°C (26%). This reflects model consensus amid uncertainty from variable cloud cover and potential transient rain showers, as per IMGW's weekly outlook indicating about 14°C in central Poland under overcast conditions that could limit solar insolation and suppress diurnal heating. Slightly warmer outcomes hinge on clearer skies enhancing boundary layer mixing, while cooler scenarios align with persistent low-level clouds. New 12z ECMWF/GFS runs and IMGW updates expected April 16 morning may refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official station data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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