Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C nearly even at 20-23.5% implied probabilities, reflecting short-range forecast model divergence for Warsaw's April 5 high amid a warming trend. Latest ECMWF and GFS ensembles project 18-21°C peaks under an upper-level ridge drawing mild Atlantic air, a sharp shift from early-week 8-13°C highs and frosts, while conservative IMGW guidance holds at 15°C with partly cloudy skies and scattered showers potentially capping warmth. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from cloud cover variability and steering patterns, with historical early-April averages near 13°C underscoring the mild anomaly. New model runs and IMGW updates expected overnight could refine odds before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
20°C 24%
19°C 24%
21°C 22%
18°C 15%
NOVO
NOVO
5 abr 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
3%
16°C
3%
17°C
7%
18°C
15%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
22%
22°C or higher
11%
20°C 24%
19°C 24%
21°C 22%
18°C 15%
NOVO
NOVO
5 abr 2026
12°C or below
$712 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,010 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,308 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$573 Vol.
3%
16°C
$358 Vol.
3%
17°C
$434 Vol.
7%
18°C
$723 Vol.
15%
19°C
$605 Vol.
24%
20°C
$475 Vol.
24%
21°C
$659 Vol.
22%
22°C or higher
$627 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C nearly even at 20-23.5% implied probabilities, reflecting short-range forecast model divergence for Warsaw's April 5 high amid a warming trend. Latest ECMWF and GFS ensembles project 18-21°C peaks under an upper-level ridge drawing mild Atlantic air, a sharp shift from early-week 8-13°C highs and frosts, while conservative IMGW guidance holds at 15°C with partly cloudy skies and scattered showers potentially capping warmth. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from cloud cover variability and steering patterns, with historical early-April averages near 13°C underscoring the mild anomaly. New model runs and IMGW updates expected overnight could refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$7,483Data de Término
5 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C nearly even at 20-23.5% implied probabilities, reflecting short-range forecast model divergence for Warsaw's April 5 high amid a warming trend. Latest ECMWF and GFS ensembles project 18-21°C peaks under an upper-level ridge drawing mild Atlantic air, a sharp shift from early-week 8-13°C highs and frosts, while conservative IMGW guidance holds at 15°C with partly cloudy skies and scattered showers potentially capping warmth. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from cloud cover variability and steering patterns, with historical early-April averages near 13°C underscoring the mild anomaly. New model runs and IMGW updates expected overnight could refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,483Data de Término
5 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C nearly even at 20-23.5% implied probabilities, reflecting short-range forecast model divergence for Warsaw's April 5 high amid a warming trend. Latest ECMWF and GFS ensembles project 18-21°C peaks under an upper-level ridge drawing mild Atlantic air, a sharp shift from early-week 8-13°C highs and frosts, while conservative IMGW guidance holds at 15°C with partly cloudy skies and scattered showers potentially capping warmth. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from cloud cover variability and steering patterns, with historical early-April averages near 13°C underscoring the mild anomaly. New model runs and IMGW updates expected overnight could refine odds before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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