Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts center Warsaw's projected maximum temperature on April 6 at 12-14°C, driving trader consensus with 12°C at 31% implied probability amid a spread reflecting model uncertainty. This positioning stems from a weak upper-level trough over Central Europe fostering mild westerly flow, partial cloud cover, and limited solar insolation, per recent IMGW synoptic analyses updated April 3-4. Key variables tipping outcomes include northerly wind shifts cooling to 9-11°C, southern warm advection pushing toward 14-16°C, or persistent cloudiness capping at 10°C; ensembles show 2-3°C spreads typical for short-range spring forecasts. Historical early April highs average 12°C, with new 12Z runs and soundings expected to sharpen odds before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?
12°C 31%
11°C 21%
10°C 17.8%
13°C 15%
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
7%
10°C
11%
11°C
21%
12°C
31%
13°C
15%
14°C
12%
15°C
6%
16°C
6%
17°C or higher
3%
12°C 31%
11°C 21%
10°C 17.8%
13°C 15%
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
7%
10°C
11%
11°C
21%
12°C
31%
13°C
15%
14°C
12%
15°C
6%
16°C
6%
17°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts center Warsaw's projected maximum temperature on April 6 at 12-14°C, driving trader consensus with 12°C at 31% implied probability amid a spread reflecting model uncertainty. This positioning stems from a weak upper-level trough over Central Europe fostering mild westerly flow, partial cloud cover, and limited solar insolation, per recent IMGW synoptic analyses updated April 3-4. Key variables tipping outcomes include northerly wind shifts cooling to 9-11°C, southern warm advection pushing toward 14-16°C, or persistent cloudiness capping at 10°C; ensembles show 2-3°C spreads typical for short-range spring forecasts. Historical early April highs average 12°C, with new 12Z runs and soundings expected to sharpen odds before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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