Market icon
Geopolítica·Recompensas 50, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)

Market icon
Geopolítica·Recompensas 50, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)

abr 5

abr 5

35-39 30%

25-29 20%

30-34 19%

20-24 17%

Polymarket
NOVO

$19,464 Vol.

35-39 30%

25-29 20%

30-34 19%

20-24 17%

Polymarket
NOVO

$19,464 Vol.

<10

$2,168 Vol.

1%

10-14

$1,798 Vol.

1%

15-19

$2,110 Vol.

11%

20-24

$2,250 Vol.

17%

25-29

$1,981 Vol.

20%

30-34

$1,923 Vol.

19%

35-39

$2,938 Vol.

30%

40-44

$1,348 Vol.

6%

45+

$3,008 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis sparked by US-Israel strikes on Iran in late February, trader consensus clusters around 25-39 ships for Mar 30-Apr 5, reflecting a collapse from pre-war daily averages of 100+ vessels to 3-7 recently, driven by IRGC checkpoints at Larak Island enforcing selective passages mostly for Iranian or allied ships like recent Chinese container vessels on Mar 30. Partial week data shows low single-digit daily transits, with 97% Iran-linked last week per Lloyd's List Intelligence. Leading 35-39 edges out via expectations of steady 5/day under toll-like deals (e.g., Pakistan's 2/day quota), while 25-29 gains if stalled US-Iran talks via Pakistan—amid Trump's Apr 6 deadline extension—prompt fewer clearances or minor attacks, keeping higher bins like 45+ marginal absent de-escalation.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$19,464
Data de Término
5 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis sparked by US-Israel strikes on Iran in late February, trader consensus clusters around 25-39 ships for Mar 30-Apr 5, reflecting a collapse from pre-war daily averages of 100+ vessels to 3-7 recently, driven by IRGC checkpoints at Larak Island enforcing selective passages mostly for Iranian or allied ships like recent Chinese container vessels on Mar 30. Partial week data shows low single-digit daily transits, with 97% Iran-linked last week per Lloyd's List Intelligence. Leading 35-39 edges out via expectations of steady 5/day under toll-like deals (e.g., Pakistan's 2/day quota), while 25-29 gains if stalled US-Iran talks via Pakistan—amid Trump's Apr 6 deadline extension—prompt fewer clearances or minor attacks, keeping higher bins like 45+ marginal absent de-escalation.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$19,464
Data de Término
5 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "35-39" at 30%, followed by "25-29" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)" has generated $19.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)" is "35-39" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "25-29" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.