A fragile US-brokered ceasefire, effective since April 8 following six weeks of joint US-Israel airstrikes that degraded Iran's ballistic missile production, air defenses, and nuclear facilities starting February 28, underpins current trader consensus on Israel-Iran military dynamics. Tensions linger with Israel's ongoing airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian threats of retaliation, and a naval standoff at the Strait of Hormuz where Tehran imposed a blockade prompting US countermeasures. Direct Israel-Lebanon talks began April 14 to curb border clashes, while reports indicate Israel weighing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure pending US approval. Upcoming diplomatic negotiations, potentially in Islamabad, represent key catalysts for de-escalation or renewed escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAção militar de Israel contra o Irã por...?
Ação militar de Israel contra o Irã por...?
$1,550,552 Vol.
21 abr 2026
14 de abril
1%
21 de abril
12%
$1,550,552 Vol.
14 de abril
$1,107,741 Vol.
1%
21 de abril
$442,811 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile US-brokered ceasefire, effective since April 8 following six weeks of joint US-Israel airstrikes that degraded Iran's ballistic missile production, air defenses, and nuclear facilities starting February 28, underpins current trader consensus on Israel-Iran military dynamics. Tensions linger with Israel's ongoing airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian threats of retaliation, and a naval standoff at the Strait of Hormuz where Tehran imposed a blockade prompting US countermeasures. Direct Israel-Lebanon talks began April 14 to curb border clashes, while reports indicate Israel weighing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure pending US approval. Upcoming diplomatic negotiations, potentially in Islamabad, represent key catalysts for de-escalation or renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$1,550,552Data de Término
21 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile US-brokered ceasefire, effective since April 8 following six weeks of joint US-Israel airstrikes that degraded Iran's ballistic missile production, air defenses, and nuclear facilities starting February 28, underpins current trader consensus on Israel-Iran military dynamics. Tensions linger with Israel's ongoing airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian threats of retaliation, and a naval standoff at the Strait of Hormuz where Tehran imposed a blockade prompting US countermeasures. Direct Israel-Lebanon talks began April 14 to curb border clashes, while reports indicate Israel weighing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure pending US approval. Upcoming diplomatic negotiations, potentially in Islamabad, represent key catalysts for de-escalation or renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,550,552Data de Término
21 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile US-brokered ceasefire, effective since April 8 following six weeks of joint US-Israel airstrikes that degraded Iran's ballistic missile production, air defenses, and nuclear facilities starting February 28, underpins current trader consensus on Israel-Iran military dynamics. Tensions linger with Israel's ongoing airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian threats of retaliation, and a naval standoff at the Strait of Hormuz where Tehran imposed a blockade prompting US countermeasures. Direct Israel-Lebanon talks began April 14 to curb border clashes, while reports indicate Israel weighing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure pending US approval. Upcoming diplomatic negotiations, potentially in Islamabad, represent key catalysts for de-escalation or renewed escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions