A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran, announced around April 7, has held tenuously into mid-April amid disputes over its scope, particularly excluding Lebanon where Israel continues airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. The conflict, ignited by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership, saw Israel shift to crippling Tehran's arms production and infrastructure through early April strikes on bridges, refineries, and petrochemical plants. A U.S. naval blockade enforces control over the Strait of Hormuz, curbing Iranian shipping. Traders monitor upcoming Israel-Lebanon direct talks in Washington and potential U.S.-Iran negotiations, as Israeli officials signal readiness for escalation—including attacks on energy facilities—if diplomacy falters, potentially resuming direct military action against Iran.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAção militar de Israel contra o Irã por...?
Ação militar de Israel contra o Irã por...?
$1,642,268 Vol.
21 abr 2026
14 de abril
<1%
21 de abril
9%
$1,642,268 Vol.
14 de abril
$1,171,536 Vol.
<1%
21 de abril
$470,732 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran, announced around April 7, has held tenuously into mid-April amid disputes over its scope, particularly excluding Lebanon where Israel continues airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. The conflict, ignited by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership, saw Israel shift to crippling Tehran's arms production and infrastructure through early April strikes on bridges, refineries, and petrochemical plants. A U.S. naval blockade enforces control over the Strait of Hormuz, curbing Iranian shipping. Traders monitor upcoming Israel-Lebanon direct talks in Washington and potential U.S.-Iran negotiations, as Israeli officials signal readiness for escalation—including attacks on energy facilities—if diplomacy falters, potentially resuming direct military action against Iran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$1,642,268Data de Término
21 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran, announced around April 7, has held tenuously into mid-April amid disputes over its scope, particularly excluding Lebanon where Israel continues airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. The conflict, ignited by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership, saw Israel shift to crippling Tehran's arms production and infrastructure through early April strikes on bridges, refineries, and petrochemical plants. A U.S. naval blockade enforces control over the Strait of Hormuz, curbing Iranian shipping. Traders monitor upcoming Israel-Lebanon direct talks in Washington and potential U.S.-Iran negotiations, as Israeli officials signal readiness for escalation—including attacks on energy facilities—if diplomacy falters, potentially resuming direct military action against Iran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,642,268Data de Término
21 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran, announced around April 7, has held tenuously into mid-April amid disputes over its scope, particularly excluding Lebanon where Israel continues airstrikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. The conflict, ignited by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership, saw Israel shift to crippling Tehran's arms production and infrastructure through early April strikes on bridges, refineries, and petrochemical plants. A U.S. naval blockade enforces control over the Strait of Hormuz, curbing Iranian shipping. Traders monitor upcoming Israel-Lebanon direct talks in Washington and potential U.S.-Iran negotiations, as Israeli officials signal readiness for escalation—including attacks on energy facilities—if diplomacy falters, potentially resuming direct military action against Iran.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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