Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs position a 22–23°C overnight minimum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on September 4, driving the 44% and 25% market-implied probabilities for those exact thresholds. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity from an approaching frontal system are limiting radiational cooling, keeping temperatures from falling to the 20°C or lower levels that would require clearer skies and lighter winds. Historical early-September climatology shows typical minima near 22°C, and current guidance aligns closely with this baseline rather than any anomalous cooling. Updated JMA briefings and real-time observations through the night will provide the final resolution data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Tóquio no dia 4 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Tóquio no dia 4 de setembro?
23°C 44%
22°C 25%
24°C 15%
25°C 6%
NOVO
NOVO
4 set 2026
18°C ou menos
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
5%
21°C
6%
22°C
25%
23°C
44%
24°C
15%
25°C
6%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C ou mais
<1%
23°C 44%
22°C 25%
24°C 15%
25°C 6%
NOVO
NOVO
4 set 2026
18°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
1%
20°C
$65 Vol.
5%
21°C
$269 Vol.
6%
22°C
$1,038 Vol.
25%
23°C
$152 Vol.
44%
24°C
$279 Vol.
15%
25°C
$0 Vol.
6%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
28°C ou mais
$100 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs position a 22–23°C overnight minimum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on September 4, driving the 44% and 25% market-implied probabilities for those exact thresholds. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity from an approaching frontal system are limiting radiational cooling, keeping temperatures from falling to the 20°C or lower levels that would require clearer skies and lighter winds. Historical early-September climatology shows typical minima near 22°C, and current guidance aligns closely with this baseline rather than any anomalous cooling. Updated JMA briefings and real-time observations through the night will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,904Data de Término
4 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs position a 22–23°C overnight minimum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on September 4, driving the 44% and 25% market-implied probabilities for those exact thresholds. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity from an approaching frontal system are limiting radiational cooling, keeping temperatures from falling to the 20°C or lower levels that would require clearer skies and lighter winds. Historical early-September climatology shows typical minima near 22°C, and current guidance aligns closely with this baseline rather than any anomalous cooling. Updated JMA briefings and real-time observations through the night will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,904Data de Término
4 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs position a 22–23°C overnight minimum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on September 4, driving the 44% and 25% market-implied probabilities for those exact thresholds. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity from an approaching frontal system are limiting radiational cooling, keeping temperatures from falling to the 20°C or lower levels that would require clearer skies and lighter winds. Historical early-September climatology shows typical minima near 22°C, and current guidance aligns closely with this baseline rather than any anomalous cooling. Updated JMA briefings and real-time observations through the night will provide the final resolution data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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