**Trader consensus heavily favors a 5°C minimum in Wellington on September 1, driven by the latest official forecasts from MetService and aligned models showing clear overnight conditions with light to moderate northwest winds allowing radiative cooling to that level.** Current observations and hourly guidance indicate temperatures dropping into the mid-40s°F (around 7°C) early on September 1 before stabilizing, consistent with spring transitional patterns where Wellington's exposed coastal location experiences sharp nighttime drops under high-pressure influence. Historical September overnight lows average near 7–9°C, making this slightly cooler outcome plausible given the specific synoptic setup. The strong market-implied probability reflects real-capital assessment of model consensus, though a modest shift in wind speed, increased cloud cover, or urban heat-island effects at the official recording site could push the actual minimum to 6°C or higher. Updated model runs and official minimum readings through the night remain the key near-term variables.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Wellington em 1 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Wellington em 1 de setembro?
5°C 94.8%
4°C 5.0%
3°C <1%
7°C <1%
NOVO
NOVO
1 set 2026
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
1%
4°C
5%
5°C
95%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C or higher
<1%
5°C 94.8%
4°C 5.0%
3°C <1%
7°C <1%
NOVO
NOVO
1 set 2026
2°C or below
$397 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$393 Vol.
1%
4°C
$132 Vol.
5%
5°C
$297 Vol.
95%
6°C
$421 Vol.
1%
7°C
$1,343 Vol.
1%
8°C
$1,380 Vol.
1%
9°C
$1,170 Vol.
1%
10°C
$134 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$219 Vol.
<1%
12°C or higher
$162 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 5°C minimum in Wellington on September 1, driven by the latest official forecasts from MetService and aligned models showing clear overnight conditions with light to moderate northwest winds allowing radiative cooling to that level.** Current observations and hourly guidance indicate temperatures dropping into the mid-40s°F (around 7°C) early on September 1 before stabilizing, consistent with spring transitional patterns where Wellington's exposed coastal location experiences sharp nighttime drops under high-pressure influence. Historical September overnight lows average near 7–9°C, making this slightly cooler outcome plausible given the specific synoptic setup. The strong market-implied probability reflects real-capital assessment of model consensus, though a modest shift in wind speed, increased cloud cover, or urban heat-island effects at the official recording site could push the actual minimum to 6°C or higher. Updated model runs and official minimum readings through the night remain the key near-term variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$6,047Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 5°C minimum in Wellington on September 1, driven by the latest official forecasts from MetService and aligned models showing clear overnight conditions with light to moderate northwest winds allowing radiative cooling to that level.** Current observations and hourly guidance indicate temperatures dropping into the mid-40s°F (around 7°C) early on September 1 before stabilizing, consistent with spring transitional patterns where Wellington's exposed coastal location experiences sharp nighttime drops under high-pressure influence. Historical September overnight lows average near 7–9°C, making this slightly cooler outcome plausible given the specific synoptic setup. The strong market-implied probability reflects real-capital assessment of model consensus, though a modest shift in wind speed, increased cloud cover, or urban heat-island effects at the official recording site could push the actual minimum to 6°C or higher. Updated model runs and official minimum readings through the night remain the key near-term variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,047Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors a 5°C minimum in Wellington on September 1, driven by the latest official forecasts from MetService and aligned models showing clear overnight conditions with light to moderate northwest winds allowing radiative cooling to that level.** Current observations and hourly guidance indicate temperatures dropping into the mid-40s°F (around 7°C) early on September 1 before stabilizing, consistent with spring transitional patterns where Wellington's exposed coastal location experiences sharp nighttime drops under high-pressure influence. Historical September overnight lows average near 7–9°C, making this slightly cooler outcome plausible given the specific synoptic setup. The strong market-implied probability reflects real-capital assessment of model consensus, though a modest shift in wind speed, increased cloud cover, or urban heat-island effects at the official recording site could push the actual minimum to 6°C or higher. Updated model runs and official minimum readings through the night remain the key near-term variables.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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