US-Iran direct peace talks in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 13 without agreement, primarily over Iran's uranium enrichment—where the US seeks a 20-year suspension—and control of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. This followed a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 via Pakistani mediation amid the ongoing 2026 war sparked by US-Israeli strikes in late February. Diplomats are now pushing for a second round this week as the truce nears expiration around April 21, with President Trump signaling potential resumption but warning of combat restart absent concessions. Sticking points include sanctions relief and nuclear curbs, underscoring deep mutual distrust despite de-escalation signals, leaving trader consensus wary of a permanent deal's timeline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAcordo de paz permanente EUA x Irã por...?
Acordo de paz permanente EUA x Irã por...?
$8,238,160 Vol.
31 mai 2026
22 de abril
16%
30 de abril
38%
31 de maio
60%
30 de junho
69%
$8,238,160 Vol.
22 de abril
$5,482,733 Vol.
16%
30 de abril
$1,525,166 Vol.
38%
31 de maio
$1,003,638 Vol.
60%
30 de junho
$244,024 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran direct peace talks in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 13 without agreement, primarily over Iran's uranium enrichment—where the US seeks a 20-year suspension—and control of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. This followed a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 via Pakistani mediation amid the ongoing 2026 war sparked by US-Israeli strikes in late February. Diplomats are now pushing for a second round this week as the truce nears expiration around April 21, with President Trump signaling potential resumption but warning of combat restart absent concessions. Sticking points include sanctions relief and nuclear curbs, underscoring deep mutual distrust despite de-escalation signals, leaving trader consensus wary of a permanent deal's timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$8,238,160Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran direct peace talks in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 13 without agreement, primarily over Iran's uranium enrichment—where the US seeks a 20-year suspension—and control of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. This followed a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 via Pakistani mediation amid the ongoing 2026 war sparked by US-Israeli strikes in late February. Diplomats are now pushing for a second round this week as the truce nears expiration around April 21, with President Trump signaling potential resumption but warning of combat restart absent concessions. Sticking points include sanctions relief and nuclear curbs, underscoring deep mutual distrust despite de-escalation signals, leaving trader consensus wary of a permanent deal's timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,238,160Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran direct peace talks in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 13 without agreement, primarily over Iran's uranium enrichment—where the US seeks a 20-year suspension—and control of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. This followed a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 via Pakistani mediation amid the ongoing 2026 war sparked by US-Israeli strikes in late February. Diplomats are now pushing for a second round this week as the truce nears expiration around April 21, with President Trump signaling potential resumption but warning of combat restart absent concessions. Sticking points include sanctions relief and nuclear curbs, underscoring deep mutual distrust despite de-escalation signals, leaving trader consensus wary of a permanent deal's timeline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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