Latest numerical weather prediction models from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF indicate a modest high-pressure ridge over the Baltic region, supporting daily maximum temperatures near 21–23 °C on 10 August, with limited diurnal heating under variable cloud cover and moderate westerly flow. Sea-surface temperatures around 18–20 °C constrain further warming, while small differences in the arrival of a weak frontal boundary create spread across ensemble members for peak values. Trader consensus clusters on 22–23 °C because these outcomes align with both climatological late-summer norms and the narrow range of current guidance, leaving little room for extremes outside that window until the next model update.