The National Weather Service's latest short-range forecast models, including the Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles, project a high temperature of 62-68°F at Central Park observatory in New York City on April 4, driving trader consensus to 98.8% implied probability for 58°F or higher. This positioning reflects a dominant high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow after early-week variability, with above-normal temperatures favored per NOAA's 8-14 day outlook amid neutral ENSO conditions. Model agreement is strong, with minimal spread below 58°F. Realistic challenges include morning showers lingering into midday, enhancing cloud cover and capping highs near 57°F, or an unanticipated northward surge of cooler maritime air; updated NWS guidance expected by evening could refine this.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in NYC on April 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?
58°F or higher 98.4%
56-57°F 1.1%
48-49°F <1%
39°F or below <1%
$113,490 Объем
$113,490 Объем
4 апр. 2026 г.
39°F or below
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58°F or higher
98%
58°F or higher 98.4%
56-57°F 1.1%
48-49°F <1%
39°F or below <1%
$113,490 Объем
$113,490 Объем
4 апр. 2026 г.
39°F or below
$15,182 Объем
<1%
40-41°F
$11,930 Объем
<1%
42-43°F
$8,181 Объем
<1%
44-45°F
$8,342 Объем
<1%
46-47°F
$7,930 Объем
<1%
48-49°F
$11,080 Объем
<1%
50-51°F
$12,251 Объем
<1%
52-53°F
$8,956 Объем
<1%
54-55°F
$7,726 Объем
<1%
56-57°F
$8,245 Объем
1%
58°F or higher
$13,703 Объем
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest short-range forecast models, including the Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles, project a high temperature of 62-68°F at Central Park observatory in New York City on April 4, driving trader consensus to 98.8% implied probability for 58°F or higher. This positioning reflects a dominant high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow after early-week variability, with above-normal temperatures favored per NOAA's 8-14 day outlook amid neutral ENSO conditions. Model agreement is strong, with minimal spread below 58°F. Realistic challenges include morning showers lingering into midday, enhancing cloud cover and capping highs near 57°F, or an unanticipated northward surge of cooler maritime air; updated NWS guidance expected by evening could refine this.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Объем
$113,490Дата окончания
4 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest short-range forecast models, including the Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles, project a high temperature of 62-68°F at Central Park observatory in New York City on April 4, driving trader consensus to 98.8% implied probability for 58°F or higher. This positioning reflects a dominant high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow after early-week variability, with above-normal temperatures favored per NOAA's 8-14 day outlook amid neutral ENSO conditions. Model agreement is strong, with minimal spread below 58°F. Realistic challenges include morning showers lingering into midday, enhancing cloud cover and capping highs near 57°F, or an unanticipated northward surge of cooler maritime air; updated NWS guidance expected by evening could refine this.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$113,490Дата окончания
4 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The National Weather Service's latest short-range forecast models, including the Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles, project a high temperature of 62-68°F at Central Park observatory in New York City on April 4, driving trader consensus to 98.8% implied probability for 58°F or higher. This positioning reflects a dominant high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow after early-week variability, with above-normal temperatures favored per NOAA's 8-14 day outlook amid neutral ENSO conditions. Model agreement is strong, with minimal spread below 58°F. Realistic challenges include morning showers lingering into midday, enhancing cloud cover and capping highs near 57°F, or an unanticipated northward surge of cooler maritime air; updated NWS guidance expected by evening could refine this.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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