Latest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco on March 25 point to highs in the upper 60s under a high-pressure ridge weakening the persistent marine layer, driving trader sentiment toward 68-69°F (17%) and 70°F+ (17%) as top outcomes. This synoptic pattern enhances solar heating by limiting coastal fog, potentially pushing temperatures 5-8°F above the March average of 62°F, per NOAA climatology. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads—GFS runs warmer with stronger offshore flow, while ECMWF tempers it with lingering stratus—yielding a tight 1-2°F variance critical for resolution at SFO's official observation. Historical precedents show 70°F+ on only 15% of March 25s, tempering aggressive bets amid diurnal uncertainty. Watch 12z model updates for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in San Francisco on March 25?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 25?
68-69°F 17%
70°F or higher 17%
54-55°F 13%
58-59°F 9%
51°F or below
1%
52-53°F
6%
54-55°F
13%
56-57°F
9%
58-59°F
9%
60-61°F
9%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
17%
70°F or higher
17%
68-69°F 17%
70°F or higher 17%
54-55°F 13%
58-59°F 9%
51°F or below
1%
52-53°F
6%
54-55°F
13%
56-57°F
9%
58-59°F
9%
60-61°F
9%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
17%
70°F or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco on March 25 point to highs in the upper 60s under a high-pressure ridge weakening the persistent marine layer, driving trader sentiment toward 68-69°F (17%) and 70°F+ (17%) as top outcomes. This synoptic pattern enhances solar heating by limiting coastal fog, potentially pushing temperatures 5-8°F above the March average of 62°F, per NOAA climatology. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads—GFS runs warmer with stronger offshore flow, while ECMWF tempers it with lingering stratus—yielding a tight 1-2°F variance critical for resolution at SFO's official observation. Historical precedents show 70°F+ on only 15% of March 25s, tempering aggressive bets amid diurnal uncertainty. Watch 12z model updates for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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