Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS show Beijing's March 21 high temperature clustering tightly between 14-17°C, fueling the razor-thin trader odds atop 16°C (28%), 14°C and 17°C (both 27.5%). Recent observations confirm a mild spring pattern, with March averages around 13°C, but incoming Siberian air masses introduce downside risk toward 14-15°C, per China Meteorological Administration updates. Differentiating factors include urban heat island amplification in Beijing potentially edging toward 17°C if cloud cover dissipates, versus model spread from jet stream variability capping at 16°C; traders eye today's 12Z model runs for resolution shifts ahead of the event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on March 21?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 21?
14°C 49%
16°C 47%
17°C 27%
15°C 26%
12°C or below
14%
13°C
8%
14°C
28%
15°C
26%
16°C
28%
17°C
27%
18°C
26%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
24%
22°C or higher
24%
14°C 49%
16°C 47%
17°C 27%
15°C 26%
12°C or below
14%
13°C
8%
14°C
28%
15°C
26%
16°C
28%
17°C
27%
18°C
26%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
24%
22°C or higher
24%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS show Beijing's March 21 high temperature clustering tightly between 14-17°C, fueling the razor-thin trader odds atop 16°C (28%), 14°C and 17°C (both 27.5%). Recent observations confirm a mild spring pattern, with March averages around 13°C, but incoming Siberian air masses introduce downside risk toward 14-15°C, per China Meteorological Administration updates. Differentiating factors include urban heat island amplification in Beijing potentially edging toward 17°C if cloud cover dissipates, versus model spread from jet stream variability capping at 16°C; traders eye today's 12Z model runs for resolution shifts ahead of the event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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