Trader sentiment on Beijing's highest temperature for March 23 remains tightly clustered around 18–19°C at 27.5% implied probabilities, reflecting model ensemble divergence amid spring variability. Latest ECMWF and GFS runs show a spread from 14–22°C, with ECMWF ensembles averaging near 19°C due to persistent high-pressure ridging over eastern China, while GFS hints cooler at 16–18°C from lingering Siberian cold air influence. Historical March highs average 13°C, but urban heat island effects and recent mild La Niña fade boost warmer odds; resolution hinges on afternoon peak observations from Beijing Capital Airport, with CMA updates expected 12 hours pre-event underscoring uncertainty in frontal timing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on March 23?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 23?
18°C 28%
19°C 28%
13°C or below 26%
14°C 26%
13°C or below
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
28%
19°C
28%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C or higher
26%
18°C 28%
19°C 28%
13°C or below 26%
14°C 26%
13°C or below
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
28%
19°C
28%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Beijing's highest temperature for March 23 remains tightly clustered around 18–19°C at 27.5% implied probabilities, reflecting model ensemble divergence amid spring variability. Latest ECMWF and GFS runs show a spread from 14–22°C, with ECMWF ensembles averaging near 19°C due to persistent high-pressure ridging over eastern China, while GFS hints cooler at 16–18°C from lingering Siberian cold air influence. Historical March highs average 13°C, but urban heat island effects and recent mild La Niña fade boost warmer odds; resolution hinges on afternoon peak observations from Beijing Capital Airport, with CMA updates expected 12 hours pre-event underscoring uncertainty in frontal timing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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