Trader consensus heavily favors 22°C (40%) as Beijing's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on afternoon peaks of 21-23°C amid mild southerly winds and high pressure dominance. Recent developments, including updated China Meteorological Administration guidance released yesterday, indicate a slight warm-up from earlier cooler projections (18-20°C), reflecting reduced cloud cover and above-normal spring temperatures linked to persistent La Niña decay influences. Historical late-March norms hover around 15-18°C, but urban heat island effects and current jet stream positioning bolster odds for the 20-23°C cluster (92.5% combined), with lower probabilities for extremes due to stable atmospheric conditions minimizing volatility. Key watch: tomorrow's 12Z model runs for final resolution cues.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on March 22?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 22?
22°C 40%
21°C 39%
20°C 26%
23°C 20%
16°C or below
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
26%
21°C
39%
22°C
40%
23°C
20%
24°C
18%
25°C
18%
26°C or higher
14%
22°C 40%
21°C 39%
20°C 26%
23°C 20%
16°C or below
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
26%
21°C
39%
22°C
40%
23°C
20%
24°C
18%
25°C
18%
26°C or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 22°C (40%) as Beijing's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on afternoon peaks of 21-23°C amid mild southerly winds and high pressure dominance. Recent developments, including updated China Meteorological Administration guidance released yesterday, indicate a slight warm-up from earlier cooler projections (18-20°C), reflecting reduced cloud cover and above-normal spring temperatures linked to persistent La Niña decay influences. Historical late-March norms hover around 15-18°C, but urban heat island effects and current jet stream positioning bolster odds for the 20-23°C cluster (92.5% combined), with lower probabilities for extremes due to stable atmospheric conditions minimizing volatility. Key watch: tomorrow's 12Z model runs for final resolution cues.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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