Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Beijing's March 20 high temperature, with models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF forecasting 15-18°C as most likely amid mild southerly winds and high pressure dominance. Recent GFS updates shifted odds upward for 17°C and 18°C by showing reduced cold air advection from Mongolia, while 20°C+ holds steady at 39.5% due to potential solar heating under clear skies—Beijing's urban heat island amplifies this by 1-2°C. Lower probabilities for 15°C or below stem from above-normal spring baselines (historical March 20 average ~13°C) and minimal cloud cover in ensemble projections, though a late cold front could pivot outcomes; monitor 00Z model runs for resolution clarity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Пекине 20 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Пекине 20 марта?
19°C 48%
17°C 46%
12°C <1%
10°C или ниже <1%
10°C или ниже
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
20%
15°C
51%
16°C
41%
17°C
46%
18°C
-
19°C
48%
20°C или выше
-
19°C 48%
17°C 46%
12°C <1%
10°C или ниже <1%
10°C или ниже
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
20%
15°C
51%
16°C
41%
17°C
46%
18°C
-
19°C
48%
20°C или выше
-
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:52 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Beijing's March 20 high temperature, with models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF forecasting 15-18°C as most likely amid mild southerly winds and high pressure dominance. Recent GFS updates shifted odds upward for 17°C and 18°C by showing reduced cold air advection from Mongolia, while 20°C+ holds steady at 39.5% due to potential solar heating under clear skies—Beijing's urban heat island amplifies this by 1-2°C. Lower probabilities for 15°C or below stem from above-normal spring baselines (historical March 20 average ~13°C) and minimal cloud cover in ensemble projections, though a late cold front could pivot outcomes; monitor 00Z model runs for resolution clarity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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