Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts point to Chengdu's March 24 high temperature clustering around 17-20°C, fueling the tight race between 21°C or higher (26.5%) and 17°C (26.0%) as top market-implied odds, with other outcomes evenly split at 18.5%. Spring variability in the Sichuan Basin amplifies uncertainty, as cold northerly outflows clash with warming southerlies, while persistent low clouds and urban haze often cap highs below seasonal norms of 16-18°C. Recent CMA updates highlight a 40% chance of clearing skies boosting peaks toward 21°C, versus overcast conditions favoring 17°C, with model spreads exceeding 3°C reflecting divergent cloud cover predictions and frontal timing. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution catalysts.