Trader sentiment for Chengdu's highest temperature on March 23 remains tightly clustered around mid-teens Celsius, reflecting high uncertainty in short-range weather models amid spring's volatile frontal systems. The slight edge for 19°C or higher at 26% stems from recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs indicating potential ridging aloft, which could suppress cloud cover and boost insolation in the Sichuan Basin, where diurnal highs often spike 5-7°C above model means during clear spells. Competing odds cluster at 25.5% due to lingering northeasterly flow from a weakening trough, consistent with historical March data averaging 16-18°C but prone to 3-4°C swings from orographic lift and urban heat. Key differentiator: 12Z model updates expected soon may sharpen probabilities based on observed 700mb temperatures hovering near -5°C.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 23?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 23?
19°C or higher 27%
9°C or below 26%
10°C 26%
11°C 26%
9°C or below
26%
10°C
26%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C or higher
27%
19°C or higher 27%
9°C or below 26%
10°C 26%
11°C 26%
9°C or below
26%
10°C
26%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C or higher
27%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Chengdu's highest temperature on March 23 remains tightly clustered around mid-teens Celsius, reflecting high uncertainty in short-range weather models amid spring's volatile frontal systems. The slight edge for 19°C or higher at 26% stems from recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs indicating potential ridging aloft, which could suppress cloud cover and boost insolation in the Sichuan Basin, where diurnal highs often spike 5-7°C above model means during clear spells. Competing odds cluster at 25.5% due to lingering northeasterly flow from a weakening trough, consistent with historical March data averaging 16-18°C but prone to 3-4°C swings from orographic lift and urban heat. Key differentiator: 12Z model updates expected soon may sharpen probabilities based on observed 700mb temperatures hovering near -5°C.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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