Trader consensus clusters tightly around 17–19°C highs for Wuhan on March 21, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models showing a 16–21°C spread amid persistent spring variability. Recent CMA updates indicate moderating northerly winds after a cold front, allowing southerly advection to push daytime maxima toward climatological norms of 17–18°C, though cloud cover and residual instability cap upside potential. Differentiating factors include model divergence on boundary layer mixing—cooler ECMWF runs favor 17°C, while warmer GFS outliers eye 20°C+—against historical March 21 records averaging 17.2°C with a 2–3°C standard deviation. Upcoming hourly observations will sharpen resolution as uncertainty narrows post-midday peak.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 21?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 21?
16°C 25%
18°C 25%
19°C 25%
20°C 25%
12°C or below
17%
13°C
23%
14°C
23%
15°C
23%
16°C
25%
17°C
21%
18°C
25%
19°C
25%
20°C
25%
21°C
25%
22°C or higher
25%
16°C 25%
18°C 25%
19°C 25%
20°C 25%
12°C or below
17%
13°C
23%
14°C
23%
15°C
23%
16°C
25%
17°C
21%
18°C
25%
19°C
25%
20°C
25%
21°C
25%
22°C or higher
25%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 17–19°C highs for Wuhan on March 21, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models showing a 16–21°C spread amid persistent spring variability. Recent CMA updates indicate moderating northerly winds after a cold front, allowing southerly advection to push daytime maxima toward climatological norms of 17–18°C, though cloud cover and residual instability cap upside potential. Differentiating factors include model divergence on boundary layer mixing—cooler ECMWF runs favor 17°C, while warmer GFS outliers eye 20°C+—against historical March 21 records averaging 17.2°C with a 2–3°C standard deviation. Upcoming hourly observations will sharpen resolution as uncertainty narrows post-midday peak.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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