Ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward Chengdu's March 21 high temperature clustering at 18-20°C (21% implied probability each), narrowly ahead of 24°C+ (24.5%), amid the city's Sichuan Basin climatology where March diurnal maxima average 17-19°C under variable stratiform cloud cover and weak southerlies. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates highlight a stalling frontal boundary introducing spread: persistent low clouds and light precipitation favor cooler 14-18°C outcomes (20.5% for 14°C or below), while diurnal heating under partial clearing differentiates warmer 21-24°C tails (15.5% each). High model ensemble divergence reflects spring transition uncertainty, keeping odds tightly matched.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 21?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 21?
18°C 24%
20°C 24%
19°C 24%
24°C or higher 21%
14°C или ниже
18%
15°C
12%
16°C
20%
17°C
20%
18°C
24%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
14%
22°C
14%
23°C
14%
24°C or higher
21%
18°C 24%
20°C 24%
19°C 24%
24°C or higher 21%
14°C или ниже
18%
15°C
12%
16°C
20%
17°C
20%
18°C
24%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
14%
22°C
14%
23°C
14%
24°C or higher
21%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward Chengdu's March 21 high temperature clustering at 18-20°C (21% implied probability each), narrowly ahead of 24°C+ (24.5%), amid the city's Sichuan Basin climatology where March diurnal maxima average 17-19°C under variable stratiform cloud cover and weak southerlies. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates highlight a stalling frontal boundary introducing spread: persistent low clouds and light precipitation favor cooler 14-18°C outcomes (20.5% for 14°C or below), while diurnal heating under partial clearing differentiates warmer 21-24°C tails (15.5% each). High model ensemble divergence reflects spring transition uncertainty, keeping odds tightly matched.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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