Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS forecast Shenzhen's March 25 high between 24-27°C, driving trader consensus toward those outcomes at 17.5% each, amid typical spring conditions of rising subtropical highs and sea breezes moderating peaks. The slight edge for 30°C or higher (25.5%) reflects urban heat island amplification in densely built Shenzhen, where concrete traps heat, plus recent observations of above-normal nighttime lows from lingering winter warmth. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—scattered clouds cap at 27°C per CMA updates—versus clear skies enabling 28-30°C spikes, with low 20°C odds due to forecasted southerlies preventing cold snaps. Uncertainty persists as models diverge on diurnal instability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 25?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 25?
30°C or higher 26%
23°C 18%
24°C 18%
25°C 18%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
13%
22°C
16%
23°C
18%
24°C
18%
25°C
18%
26°C
18%
27°C
18%
28°C
16%
29°C
13%
30°C or higher
26%
30°C or higher 26%
23°C 18%
24°C 18%
25°C 18%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
13%
22°C
16%
23°C
18%
24°C
18%
25°C
18%
26°C
18%
27°C
18%
28°C
16%
29°C
13%
30°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 6:20 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS forecast Shenzhen's March 25 high between 24-27°C, driving trader consensus toward those outcomes at 17.5% each, amid typical spring conditions of rising subtropical highs and sea breezes moderating peaks. The slight edge for 30°C or higher (25.5%) reflects urban heat island amplification in densely built Shenzhen, where concrete traps heat, plus recent observations of above-normal nighttime lows from lingering winter warmth. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—scattered clouds cap at 27°C per CMA updates—versus clear skies enabling 28-30°C spikes, with low 20°C odds due to forecasted southerlies preventing cold snaps. Uncertainty persists as models diverge on diurnal instability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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