Trader sentiment for Chengdu's March 25 high temperature hinges on divergent short-range forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, with ensemble spreads clustering probabilities tightly around 15-19°C (collectively ~64%) while assigning notable weight to 24°C+ (16.5%) amid potential adiabatic warming from downslope winds. Historical March maxima in Chengdu average 17-20°C under its humid subtropical climate, but recent developments—a weakening cold front exit and building high-pressure ridge per China Meteorological Administration updates—could push peaks higher if cloud cover clears, differentiating cooler outcomes reliant on lingering northerlies from warmer scenarios fueled by solar insolation and urban heat effects. Traders eye hourly observations from the official station for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 25?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 25?
14°C or below 20%
19°C 17%
24°C or higher 17%
15°C 16%
14°C or below
20%
15°C
16%
16°C
16%
17°C
16%
18°C
9%
19°C
17%
20°C
15%
21°C
9%
22°C
9%
23°C
12%
24°C or higher
17%
14°C or below 20%
19°C 17%
24°C or higher 17%
15°C 16%
14°C or below
20%
15°C
16%
16°C
16%
17°C
16%
18°C
9%
19°C
17%
20°C
15%
21°C
9%
22°C
9%
23°C
12%
24°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 6:28 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Chengdu's March 25 high temperature hinges on divergent short-range forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, with ensemble spreads clustering probabilities tightly around 15-19°C (collectively ~64%) while assigning notable weight to 24°C+ (16.5%) amid potential adiabatic warming from downslope winds. Historical March maxima in Chengdu average 17-20°C under its humid subtropical climate, but recent developments—a weakening cold front exit and building high-pressure ridge per China Meteorological Administration updates—could push peaks higher if cloud cover clears, differentiating cooler outcomes reliant on lingering northerlies from warmer scenarios fueled by solar insolation and urban heat effects. Traders eye hourly observations from the official station for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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