Trader consensus centers on a 17°C high in Shanghai on March 25 at 36.5% implied probability, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mild southerly flows after a recent cool front dissipated. Late March climatology averages 14-16°C highs, with current upper-air patterns—featuring ridging over eastern China—favoring a modest warm-up from recent observations averaging 12-14°C. Model spread of ±2°C sustains strong odds for 14-16°C (24% each), while 18°C at 17% reflects upside risk from accelerating spring warmth. Traders monitor 00Z updates and Shanghai Pudong Airport readings for resolution-defining precision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 25?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 25?
16°C 29%
17°C 29%
15°C 24%
18°C 17%
11°C or below
2%
12°C
15%
13°C
17%
14°C
6%
15°C
24%
16°C
29%
17°C
29%
18°C
17%
19°C
14%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
2%
16°C 29%
17°C 29%
15°C 24%
18°C 17%
11°C or below
2%
12°C
15%
13°C
17%
14°C
6%
15°C
24%
16°C
29%
17°C
29%
18°C
17%
19°C
14%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on a 17°C high in Shanghai on March 25 at 36.5% implied probability, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mild southerly flows after a recent cool front dissipated. Late March climatology averages 14-16°C highs, with current upper-air patterns—featuring ridging over eastern China—favoring a modest warm-up from recent observations averaging 12-14°C. Model spread of ±2°C sustains strong odds for 14-16°C (24% each), while 18°C at 17% reflects upside risk from accelerating spring warmth. Traders monitor 00Z updates and Shanghai Pudong Airport readings for resolution-defining precision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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