Trader consensus tightly clusters around 14–16°C for Shanghai's highest temperature on March 23, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on a diurnal maximum near 15°C amid mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover. Differentiating factors include model spreads from low-level moisture variability—ECMWF leans warmer at 16°C due to urban heat island amplification in Shanghai, while GFS favors 14–15°C with potential northerly wind shear. Historical late-March highs average 16°C, but cooler early-spring patterns and recent soundings suppress extremes above 17°C, with traders pricing low tails for overcast scenarios. Official Xujiahui station data will resolve post-event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 23?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 23?
14°C 27%
15°C 26%
16°C 26%
17°C 9%
11°C or below
3%
12°C
1%
13°C
7%
14°C
27%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
9%
18°C
4%
19°C
4%
20°C
6%
21°C or higher
7%
14°C 27%
15°C 26%
16°C 26%
17°C 9%
11°C or below
3%
12°C
1%
13°C
7%
14°C
27%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
9%
18°C
4%
19°C
4%
20°C
6%
21°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus tightly clusters around 14–16°C for Shanghai's highest temperature on March 23, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on a diurnal maximum near 15°C amid mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover. Differentiating factors include model spreads from low-level moisture variability—ECMWF leans warmer at 16°C due to urban heat island amplification in Shanghai, while GFS favors 14–15°C with potential northerly wind shear. Historical late-March highs average 16°C, but cooler early-spring patterns and recent soundings suppress extremes above 17°C, with traders pricing low tails for overcast scenarios. Official Xujiahui station data will resolve post-event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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