Trader sentiment for Austin's March 25 high temperature hinges on divergent short-range weather model ensembles, with NOAA's GFS leaning toward 90-91°F peaks (18% implied odds) under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering adiabatic warming and downslope flow, while ECMWF runs favor 86-89°F (combined ~35%) due to potential mid-afternoon cloud incursions from Gulf moisture. The 25.5% chance of 83°F or below reflects outlier cooler biases from HRRR models anticipating a weak frontal trough timing shift. Historical March data shows Austin averages 77°F highs but frequent 90°F+ outliers (10-15% baseline), amplifying uncertainty ahead of evening forecast updates that could sway the tight cluster of 16-18% odds across 84-95°F bins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Austin on March 25?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 25?
90-91°F 18%
88-89°F 18%
83°F or below 17%
86-87°F 17%
83°F or below
17%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
17%
94-95°F
17%
96-97°F
17%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
12%
102°F or higher
2%
90-91°F 18%
88-89°F 18%
83°F or below 17%
86-87°F 17%
83°F or below
17%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
17%
94-95°F
17%
96-97°F
17%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
12%
102°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Austin's March 25 high temperature hinges on divergent short-range weather model ensembles, with NOAA's GFS leaning toward 90-91°F peaks (18% implied odds) under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering adiabatic warming and downslope flow, while ECMWF runs favor 86-89°F (combined ~35%) due to potential mid-afternoon cloud incursions from Gulf moisture. The 25.5% chance of 83°F or below reflects outlier cooler biases from HRRR models anticipating a weak frontal trough timing shift. Historical March data shows Austin averages 77°F highs but frequent 90°F+ outliers (10-15% baseline), amplifying uncertainty ahead of evening forecast updates that could sway the tight cluster of 16-18% odds across 84-95°F bins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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