Traders are pricing a 47.5% chance of Warsaw hitting 15°C or higher on March 25, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a mild Atlantic ridge pushing highs into the mid-teens Celsius, with mean projections around 13-14°C. This edges out the clustered 17.5% odds for 9-13°C outcomes, reflecting early spring climatology—historical late-March maxima average 9-10°C at Warsaw's Chopin Airport—but overridden by recent model consensus from persistent southerly flows. Lower probabilities for sub-9°C stem from negligible cold snaps in current upper-air patterns, though short-range uncertainty persists ahead of hourly observations from Poland's IMGW, which resolve the market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 25?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 25?
14°C 19%
13°C 18%
9°C 17%
10°C 17%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
3%
8°C
1%
9°C
17%
10°C
17%
11°C
17%
12°C
17%
13°C
18%
14°C
19%
15°C or higher
48%
14°C 19%
13°C 18%
9°C 17%
10°C 17%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
3%
8°C
1%
9°C
17%
10°C
17%
11°C
17%
12°C
17%
13°C
18%
14°C
19%
15°C or higher
48%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 6:22 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing a 47.5% chance of Warsaw hitting 15°C or higher on March 25, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a mild Atlantic ridge pushing highs into the mid-teens Celsius, with mean projections around 13-14°C. This edges out the clustered 17.5% odds for 9-13°C outcomes, reflecting early spring climatology—historical late-March maxima average 9-10°C at Warsaw's Chopin Airport—but overridden by recent model consensus from persistent southerly flows. Lower probabilities for sub-9°C stem from negligible cold snaps in current upper-air patterns, though short-range uncertainty persists ahead of hourly observations from Poland's IMGW, which resolve the market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы