Trader sentiment on Warsaw's highest temperature March 24 tilts toward mild conditions, with 13°C or higher leading at 33% implied probability, driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 11-12°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering warmer continental air. Recent model updates show slight warming trends from yesterday's runs, elevating 12°C (22%) and 11°C (19%) odds, while historical March 24 averages near 9°C provide baseline context. High uncertainty stems from potential cloud cover and a approaching Atlantic low, dispersing probabilities evenly across 7-13°C; lower outcomes like 6°C below 1% reflect negligible cold snaps in current synoptic patterns. Key variables include jet stream positioning, surface winds, and diel heating, with IMGW updates pivotal ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 24?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 24?
13°C or higher 33%
12°C 23%
11°C 20%
9°C 19%
3°C or below
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
16%
8°C
18%
9°C
19%
10°C
19%
11°C
20%
12°C
23%
13°C or higher
33%
13°C or higher 33%
12°C 23%
11°C 20%
9°C 19%
3°C or below
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
16%
8°C
18%
9°C
19%
10°C
19%
11°C
20%
12°C
23%
13°C or higher
33%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:27 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Warsaw's highest temperature March 24 tilts toward mild conditions, with 13°C or higher leading at 33% implied probability, driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 11-12°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering warmer continental air. Recent model updates show slight warming trends from yesterday's runs, elevating 12°C (22%) and 11°C (19%) odds, while historical March 24 averages near 9°C provide baseline context. High uncertainty stems from potential cloud cover and a approaching Atlantic low, dispersing probabilities evenly across 7-13°C; lower outcomes like 6°C below 1% reflect negligible cold snaps in current synoptic patterns. Key variables include jet stream positioning, surface winds, and diel heating, with IMGW updates pivotal ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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