Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Madrid's highest temperature on March 24 clustering tightly around 17-20°C, fueling the neck-and-neck trader odds with 17°C at 24.5% implied probability leading narrowly. This reflects a mild high-pressure ridge over Iberia advecting warmer Atlantic air, elevating above the 16-18°C March climatological average high at Madrid-Barajas Airport. Model spread differentiates outcomes: deterministic runs favor 18-19°C amid light southerly winds and partial cloudiness, while cooler outliers account for potential frontal passages; extremes like 13°C or below (<3%) or 23°C+ (17%) align with rare historical deviations observed in official AEMET records. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on March 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 24?
17°C 25%
20°C 24%
18°C 24%
19°C 21%
13°C or below
3%
14°C
3%
15°C
16%
16°C
18%
17°C
25%
18°C
24%
19°C
21%
20°C
24%
21°C
19%
22°C
18%
23°C or higher
17%
17°C 25%
20°C 24%
18°C 24%
19°C 21%
13°C or below
3%
14°C
3%
15°C
16%
16°C
18%
17°C
25%
18°C
24%
19°C
21%
20°C
24%
21°C
19%
22°C
18%
23°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Madrid's highest temperature on March 24 clustering tightly around 17-20°C, fueling the neck-and-neck trader odds with 17°C at 24.5% implied probability leading narrowly. This reflects a mild high-pressure ridge over Iberia advecting warmer Atlantic air, elevating above the 16-18°C March climatological average high at Madrid-Barajas Airport. Model spread differentiates outcomes: deterministic runs favor 18-19°C amid light southerly winds and partial cloudiness, while cooler outliers account for potential frontal passages; extremes like 13°C or below (<3%) or 23°C+ (17%) align with rare historical deviations observed in official AEMET records. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы