Trader consensus heavily favors 19°C (45%) as Madrid's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 18-20°C under a building high-pressure system over Iberia. This mild late-winter pattern aligns with Madrid's climatological norms—March highs average 17°C, with 68% of historical observations between 16-20°C per AEMET data—boosted by southerly flows reducing cloudiness. Recent developments include AEMET's updated outlook yesterday trimming rain chances to under 10%, shifting odds upward from 18°C (now 23.5%) while capping 21°C+ extremes at low probabilities due to capped model ceilings around 20-21°C max. Uncertainty persists from potential frontal intrusions, but current guidance solidifies 19°C as the market anchor.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Мадриде 22 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Мадриде 22 марта?
19°C 44%
18°C 24%
20°C 16%
17°C 8%
$13,846 Объем
$13,846 Объем
14°C или ниже
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
8%
18°C
24%
19°C
44%
20°C
16%
21°C
4%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C или выше
1%
19°C 44%
18°C 24%
20°C 16%
17°C 8%
$13,846 Объем
$13,846 Объем
14°C или ниже
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
8%
18°C
24%
19°C
44%
20°C
16%
21°C
4%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C или выше
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 19°C (45%) as Madrid's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 18-20°C under a building high-pressure system over Iberia. This mild late-winter pattern aligns with Madrid's climatological norms—March highs average 17°C, with 68% of historical observations between 16-20°C per AEMET data—boosted by southerly flows reducing cloudiness. Recent developments include AEMET's updated outlook yesterday trimming rain chances to under 10%, shifting odds upward from 18°C (now 23.5%) while capping 21°C+ extremes at low probabilities due to capped model ceilings around 20-21°C max. Uncertainty persists from potential frontal intrusions, but current guidance solidifies 19°C as the market anchor.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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