Recent ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS show Seoul's March 24 high clustering around 13-14°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds, fueling trader sentiment for those outcomes at 29.5% and 23.5% implied probabilities. Differentiating factors include subtle model spreads: ECMWF hints at slightly warmer peaks near 14°C from southerly flows, while KMA's high-resolution guidance favors 13°C amid potential mid-afternoon cloud buildup suppressing insolation. Historical late-March averages hover at 12°C, but persistent mild high-pressure ridges have elevated baselines this season, with 12°C (17%) and 15°C+ (13.5%) reflecting resolution risks from timing of peak heating or unexpected diurnal variations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
13°C 30%
14°C 24%
12°C 16%
15°C or higher 13%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
4%
10°C
7%
11°C
9%
12°C
16%
13°C
30%
14°C
24%
15°C or higher
13%
13°C 30%
14°C 24%
12°C 16%
15°C or higher 13%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
4%
10°C
7%
11°C
9%
12°C
16%
13°C
30%
14°C
24%
15°C or higher
13%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS show Seoul's March 24 high clustering around 13-14°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds, fueling trader sentiment for those outcomes at 29.5% and 23.5% implied probabilities. Differentiating factors include subtle model spreads: ECMWF hints at slightly warmer peaks near 14°C from southerly flows, while KMA's high-resolution guidance favors 13°C amid potential mid-afternoon cloud buildup suppressing insolation. Historical late-March averages hover at 12°C, but persistent mild high-pressure ridges have elevated baselines this season, with 12°C (17%) and 15°C+ (13.5%) reflecting resolution risks from timing of peak heating or unexpected diurnal variations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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