Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tel Aviv high of 19°C at 32% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS models projecting 18–21°C amid a mild Mediterranean high-pressure ridge. Historical March averages hover around 19°C at the official Bet Dagan station, but uncertainty stems from potential cloud cover from an approaching weak front, coastal sea-breeze moderation, and urban heat island effects that could push outcomes toward 20–21°C (37% combined). Lower odds for extremes reflect stable barometric patterns with minimal risk of heatwaves (23°C+) or cold snaps (13°C-), though diurnal variability adds ~1–2°C spread in observations. Watch IMS updates by midday for resolution catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
19°C 33%
20°C 22%
18°C 18%
16°C 17%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
14%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
18%
19°C
32%
20°C
22%
21°C
15%
22°C
11%
23°C or higher
10%
19°C 33%
20°C 22%
18°C 18%
16°C 17%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
14%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
18%
19°C
32%
20°C
22%
21°C
15%
22°C
11%
23°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tel Aviv high of 19°C at 32% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS models projecting 18–21°C amid a mild Mediterranean high-pressure ridge. Historical March averages hover around 19°C at the official Bet Dagan station, but uncertainty stems from potential cloud cover from an approaching weak front, coastal sea-breeze moderation, and urban heat island effects that could push outcomes toward 20–21°C (37% combined). Lower odds for extremes reflect stable barometric patterns with minimal risk of heatwaves (23°C+) or cold snaps (13°C-), though diurnal variability adds ~1–2°C spread in observations. Watch IMS updates by midday for resolution catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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