Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Milan high of 15°C (47%) or 16°C (40%) for March 20, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 14.5–16.5°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Recent 00Z model runs show ECMWF's deterministic run at 15°C with slight cooling from diurnal cloud cover, while GFS edges warmer at 16°C due to sunnier skies in its output; ensemble spreads of ±1–2°C reflect uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and frontal timing. Historical March 20 highs average 13–15°C at Milano Linate, with current anomalies supporting these odds over cooler outliers. Watch 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Милане 20 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Милане 20 марта?
15°C 48%
16°C 33%
17°C 10%
14°C 2.2%
$42,276 Объем
$42,276 Объем
10°C или ниже
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
58%
16°C
33%
17°C
16%
18°C
2%
19°C
2%
20°C или выше
<1%
15°C 48%
16°C 33%
17°C 10%
14°C 2.2%
$42,276 Объем
$42,276 Объем
10°C или ниже
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
58%
16°C
33%
17°C
16%
18°C
2%
19°C
2%
20°C или выше
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 2:26 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Milan high of 15°C (47%) or 16°C (40%) for March 20, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 14.5–16.5°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Recent 00Z model runs show ECMWF's deterministic run at 15°C with slight cooling from diurnal cloud cover, while GFS edges warmer at 16°C due to sunnier skies in its output; ensemble spreads of ±1–2°C reflect uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and frontal timing. Historical March 20 highs average 13–15°C at Milano Linate, with current anomalies supporting these odds over cooler outliers. Watch 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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