Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 32.5% probability for Miami's highest temperature on March 22 reaching 80-81°F, driven primarily by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model runs forecasting peaks in that range amid a strengthening subtropical ridge promoting southerly winds and warm advection from the Atlantic. Historical March highs average 78-80°F, but elevated sea surface temperatures—currently 1-2°F above normal—support hotter outcomes, elevating odds for 82-83°F at 21%. Lower probabilities for cooler readings (e.g., 74-75°F at 3.5%) reflect minimal cold front risks per NWS outlooks. Key variables include sea breeze timing, which could cap peaks by 1-2°F through coastal cooling, and upper-air humidity influencing cloud cover; high market uncertainty stems from 10-15°F ensemble spreads in long-range guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Miami on March 22?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 22?
80-81°F 32%
78-79°F 22%
82-83°F 21%
84-85°F 9%
$76,532 Объем
$76,532 Объем
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
22%
80-81°F
32%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
4%
88°F or higher
4%
80-81°F 32%
78-79°F 22%
82-83°F 21%
84-85°F 9%
$76,532 Объем
$76,532 Объем
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
22%
80-81°F
32%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
4%
88°F or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 32.5% probability for Miami's highest temperature on March 22 reaching 80-81°F, driven primarily by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model runs forecasting peaks in that range amid a strengthening subtropical ridge promoting southerly winds and warm advection from the Atlantic. Historical March highs average 78-80°F, but elevated sea surface temperatures—currently 1-2°F above normal—support hotter outcomes, elevating odds for 82-83°F at 21%. Lower probabilities for cooler readings (e.g., 74-75°F at 3.5%) reflect minimal cold front risks per NWS outlooks. Key variables include sea breeze timing, which could cap peaks by 1-2°F through coastal cooling, and upper-air humidity influencing cloud cover; high market uncertainty stems from 10-15°F ensemble spreads in long-range guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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