Latest NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward Miami's March 24 high temperature clustering in the low-to-mid 80s°F, with 82-83°F at 30% implied probability edging out 84-85°F at 26%, reflecting a tight 2°F model spread amid above-normal sea surface temperatures around 78°F and a persistent subtropical ridge promoting downslope warming. Historical data shows March 24 averages near 79°F at Miami International Airport, but recent GFS runs indicate peak afternoon heating could push 1-2°F higher under light winds and minimal cloud cover, differentiating the leaders; below 82°F odds (36%) hinge on unexpected marine layer persistence or sea breeze intensification, while 86°F+ remains low at 14.6% due to ensemble means capping near 83°F. Key watch: 18z model updates today.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Miami on March 24?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 24?
82-83°F 30%
84-85°F 21%
80-81°F 21%
86-87°F 11%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
14%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
26%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
2%
82-83°F 30%
84-85°F 21%
80-81°F 21%
86-87°F 11%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
14%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
26%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward Miami's March 24 high temperature clustering in the low-to-mid 80s°F, with 82-83°F at 30% implied probability edging out 84-85°F at 26%, reflecting a tight 2°F model spread amid above-normal sea surface temperatures around 78°F and a persistent subtropical ridge promoting downslope warming. Historical data shows March 24 averages near 79°F at Miami International Airport, but recent GFS runs indicate peak afternoon heating could push 1-2°F higher under light winds and minimal cloud cover, differentiating the leaders; below 82°F odds (36%) hinge on unexpected marine layer persistence or sea breeze intensification, while 86°F+ remains low at 14.6% due to ensemble means capping near 83°F. Key watch: 18z model updates today.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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