Trader consensus favors a Tokyo high of 17°C (32%) on March 24, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts projecting mild southerly winds and partial sunshine boosting afternoon temperatures into the mid-teens Celsius, amid early cherry blossom warmth. Leading alternatives—16°C (26.5%) and 18°C (22%)—reflect model ensemble spread from ECMWF and GFS, where cloud cover variability and urban heat island effects could shave or add 1-2°C to peak readings around 2-4 PM JST. Historical late-March norms (13-15°C average highs) support this cluster, but recent cold snaps earlier in the month heighten uncertainty, with lower odds for extremes due to stable barometric pressure minimizing advection fog or heat waves. Key watch: JMA's 12Z update for resolution-defining details.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on March 24?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 24?
17°C 32%
16°C 27%
18°C 22%
19°C 19%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
7%
13°C
16%
14°C
6%
15°C
18%
16°C
27%
17°C
32%
18°C
22%
19°C
19%
20°C
16%
21°C or higher
6%
17°C 32%
16°C 27%
18°C 22%
19°C 19%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
7%
13°C
16%
14°C
6%
15°C
18%
16°C
27%
17°C
32%
18°C
22%
19°C
19%
20°C
16%
21°C or higher
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a Tokyo high of 17°C (32%) on March 24, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts projecting mild southerly winds and partial sunshine boosting afternoon temperatures into the mid-teens Celsius, amid early cherry blossom warmth. Leading alternatives—16°C (26.5%) and 18°C (22%)—reflect model ensemble spread from ECMWF and GFS, where cloud cover variability and urban heat island effects could shave or add 1-2°C to peak readings around 2-4 PM JST. Historical late-March norms (13-15°C average highs) support this cluster, but recent cold snaps earlier in the month heighten uncertainty, with lower odds for extremes due to stable barometric pressure minimizing advection fog or heat waves. Key watch: JMA's 12Z update for resolution-defining details.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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