Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around upper 80s to low 90s highs for Austin on March 24, driven primarily by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting 86-91°F amid a robust upper-level ridge over Texas fostering subsidence warming and clear skies. Recent model runs show a slight eastward shift in the ridge axis, nudging odds toward 88-91°F bins over 84-87°F by enhancing downslope flow from the west, while low soil moisture from ongoing drought limits evaporative cooling. Historical late-March precedents under similar 500mb geopotential height patterns average 87°F locally, with uncertainty hinging on morning boundary layer stability and any stray cumulus development capping extremes below 92°F.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Austin on March 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
84-85°F 20%
86-87°F 20%
88-89°F 20%
90-91°F 20%
79°F or below
8%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
20%
88-89°F
20%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
18%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
8%
84-85°F 20%
86-87°F 20%
88-89°F 20%
90-91°F 20%
79°F or below
8%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
20%
88-89°F
20%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
18%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around upper 80s to low 90s highs for Austin on March 24, driven primarily by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting 86-91°F amid a robust upper-level ridge over Texas fostering subsidence warming and clear skies. Recent model runs show a slight eastward shift in the ridge axis, nudging odds toward 88-91°F bins over 84-87°F by enhancing downslope flow from the west, while low soil moisture from ongoing drought limits evaporative cooling. Historical late-March precedents under similar 500mb geopotential height patterns average 87°F locally, with uncertainty hinging on morning boundary layer stability and any stray cumulus development capping extremes below 92°F.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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