Trader sentiment on Madrid's March 23 high temperature tilts toward 18°C (24.5%) and 19°C (23.5%), driven by the latest ECMWF and AEMET ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 17-20°C under a mild Atlantic high-pressure ridge with light southerly winds boosting daytime heating. These closely matched odds reflect model convergence on partial cloud cover limiting extremes, differentiating lower probabilities for 16°C or below (cooler northerly shifts unlikely) from 22°C+ (requiring sustained clear skies absent in GFS runs). Historical March 23 averages hover at 17.5°C, but a +1-2°C anomaly from recent warm spells adds upside risk; monitor AEMET's 12Z update for resolution-defining precision amid typical spring forecast divergence.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on March 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 23?
17°C 28%
18°C 25%
19°C 24%
20°C 21%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
7%
16°C
14%
17°C
19%
18°C
25%
19°C
24%
20°C
21%
21°C
16%
22°C
9%
23°C
8%
24°C or higher
5%
17°C 28%
18°C 25%
19°C 24%
20°C 21%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
7%
16°C
14%
17°C
19%
18°C
25%
19°C
24%
20°C
21%
21°C
16%
22°C
9%
23°C
8%
24°C or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Madrid's March 23 high temperature tilts toward 18°C (24.5%) and 19°C (23.5%), driven by the latest ECMWF and AEMET ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 17-20°C under a mild Atlantic high-pressure ridge with light southerly winds boosting daytime heating. These closely matched odds reflect model convergence on partial cloud cover limiting extremes, differentiating lower probabilities for 16°C or below (cooler northerly shifts unlikely) from 22°C+ (requiring sustained clear skies absent in GFS runs). Historical March 23 averages hover at 17.5°C, but a +1-2°C anomaly from recent warm spells adds upside risk; monitor AEMET's 12Z update for resolution-defining precision amid typical spring forecast divergence.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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