Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 12°C as the highest temperature at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 11, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW)'s latest synoptic forecast explicitly projecting a 12°C maximum amid a cold Arctic air mass dominating central Poland. Airport METAR observations peaked near 11°C by late afternoon (18:30 local time), with evening readings dropping to 8.5°C by 20:00 and 3.2°C after 23:00, aligning with diminishing solar heating post-sunset at 19:29. Model consensus from IMGW reflects cloudy conditions and northerly winds suppressing highs, consistent with historical April norms around 13°C but cooled by current atmospheric patterns. Realistic challenges include a rare measurement revision from final IMGW data or an improbable nocturnal warmup, though post-sunset cooling makes higher outcomes negligible. Updated observations expected overnight.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 11?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 11?
12°C 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$83,873 Объем
$83,873 Объем
11 апр. 2026 г.
12°C
100%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$83,873 Объем
$83,873 Объем
11 апр. 2026 г.
12°C
$13,428 Объем
100%
13°C
$10,753 Объем
<1%
14°C
$6,624 Объем
<1%
15°C
$5,197 Объем
<1%
16°C
$4,327 Объем
<1%
17°C or higher
$3,997 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 12°C as the highest temperature at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 11, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW)'s latest synoptic forecast explicitly projecting a 12°C maximum amid a cold Arctic air mass dominating central Poland. Airport METAR observations peaked near 11°C by late afternoon (18:30 local time), with evening readings dropping to 8.5°C by 20:00 and 3.2°C after 23:00, aligning with diminishing solar heating post-sunset at 19:29. Model consensus from IMGW reflects cloudy conditions and northerly winds suppressing highs, consistent with historical April norms around 13°C but cooled by current atmospheric patterns. Realistic challenges include a rare measurement revision from final IMGW data or an improbable nocturnal warmup, though post-sunset cooling makes higher outcomes negligible. Updated observations expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Объем
$83,873Дата окончания
11 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 12°C as the highest temperature at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 11, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW)'s latest synoptic forecast explicitly projecting a 12°C maximum amid a cold Arctic air mass dominating central Poland. Airport METAR observations peaked near 11°C by late afternoon (18:30 local time), with evening readings dropping to 8.5°C by 20:00 and 3.2°C after 23:00, aligning with diminishing solar heating post-sunset at 19:29. Model consensus from IMGW reflects cloudy conditions and northerly winds suppressing highs, consistent with historical April norms around 13°C but cooled by current atmospheric patterns. Realistic challenges include a rare measurement revision from final IMGW data or an improbable nocturnal warmup, though post-sunset cooling makes higher outcomes negligible. Updated observations expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$83,873Дата окончания
11 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 12°C as the highest temperature at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 11, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW)'s latest synoptic forecast explicitly projecting a 12°C maximum amid a cold Arctic air mass dominating central Poland. Airport METAR observations peaked near 11°C by late afternoon (18:30 local time), with evening readings dropping to 8.5°C by 20:00 and 3.2°C after 23:00, aligning with diminishing solar heating post-sunset at 19:29. Model consensus from IMGW reflects cloudy conditions and northerly winds suppressing highs, consistent with historical April norms around 13°C but cooled by current atmospheric patterns. Realistic challenges include a rare measurement revision from final IMGW data or an improbable nocturnal warmup, though post-sunset cooling makes higher outcomes negligible. Updated observations expected overnight.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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