Charles Hittler's commanding 85% implied probability in the Arcis-sur-Aube mayoral election stems from his incumbency advantage and consistent polling leads, bolstered by strong local endorsements from centrist and right-leaning groups. Recent developments, including a favorable October 2024 opinion survey showing him ahead by over 30 points and Antoine Renault-Zielinski's campaign stumbles amid low turnout expectations for the March 2026 vote, have widened the gap. Annie Soucat's 11% reflects niche left-wing support but lacks momentum, while Zielinski's 5.5% trails due to limited national party backing in this small Aube commune. Traders price in minimal upset risk absent major scandals before upcoming candidate forums.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоCharles Hittler 85%
Annie Soucat 11%
Antoine Renault-Zielinski 5%
NEW
NEW
Mar 22, 2026
Charles Hittler
85%
Annie Soucat
11%
Antoine Renault-Zielinski
5%
Charles Hittler 85%
Annie Soucat 11%
Antoine Renault-Zielinski 5%
NEW
NEW
Mar 22, 2026
Charles Hittler
$649 Объем
85%
Annie Soucat
$118 Объем
11%
Antoine Renault-Zielinski
$251 Объем
5%
The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 9:07 AM ET
Объем
$1,018Дата окончания
Mar 22, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 9:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Объем
$1,018Дата окончания
Mar 22, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 9:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Charles Hittler's commanding 85% implied probability in the Arcis-sur-Aube mayoral election stems from his incumbency advantage and consistent polling leads, bolstered by strong local endorsements from centrist and right-leaning groups. Recent developments, including a favorable October 2024 opinion survey showing him ahead by over 30 points and Antoine Renault-Zielinski's campaign stumbles amid low turnout expectations for the March 2026 vote, have widened the gap. Annie Soucat's 11% reflects niche left-wing support but lacks momentum, while Zielinski's 5.5% trails due to limited national party backing in this small Aube commune. Traders price in minimal upset risk absent major scandals before upcoming candidate forums.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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