Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds a dominant position in the November 28 Keelung mayoral race, with traders assigning him an 86% implied probability of victory. His advantage stems from incumbency in a traditionally KMT-leaning city, combined with his survival of an October 2024 recall effort that fell short of the required threshold. DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei, the city council speaker, has focused recent campaign efforts on healthcare infrastructure proposals, including a proposed medical and long-term care complex, yet faces structural headwinds in a city where KMT candidates have historically prevailed. An independent candidate rounds out the field but shows negligible support in current pricing. The two-month timeline to election day leaves room for shifts from polling trends or late developments, though no major catalysts have emerged since candidate registration closed in early September.